The June employment report exceeded expectations. Indeed, the nation added an estimated 147,000 jobs last month, easily surpassing the consensus forecast of 110,000 and up modestly from the estimated 144,000 jobs created in May. The sanguine report also included a drop in the unemployment rate, from 4.2% to 4.1%. In addition, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed an increase in the number of job openings last month, which alleviated some concerns about...

Inflation increased modestly in May. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the assessment of inflation most closely watched by the Federal Reserve, increased 0.1% on a month-to-month basis in May, matching the previous-month pace and the consensus forecast. However, the core PCE, which excludes the food and energy components, rose 0.2%, which was above forecast. It was a similar picture on a one-year basis, with the PCE (+2.2%) matching the April pace, but the...

The Federal Reserve took a slightly more hawkish stance at its June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. That included a continued pause on the interest-rate front, holding the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, even with recent data showing a slowdown in the pace of price growth at both the consumer and producer levels. The central bank wants more time to assess the impact of global affairs, including the developments...