The July price data painted a mixed picture on inflation. On the positive side, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was relatively in line with the consensus forecast and overall benign. Conversely, the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in very hot, with the PPI and core PPI, which excludes the food and energy components, jumping 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively, on a month-to-month basis, suggesting that the Trump tariffs may be leading to an uptick in inflation...

The negative impact of tariffs on consumer prices has yet to be seen. True, the last mile in the Federal Reserve’s effort to bring inflation closer to its target rate of 2.0% has been challenging, but overall price action has been rather controlled in the early summer months. Specifically, during July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the core CPI, which excludes the food and energy components, rose 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, matching the consensus...

The nation’s economy has been flashing mixed signals lately. On a positive note, GDP (gross domestic product) expanded at an annualized rate of 3.0% during the second quarter, after contracting earlier in the year. In addition, many economists expect further progress in the second half of 2025, and it seems unlikely a recession is on the near-term horizon. In contrast, the latest employment report showed some cracks may be forming under the surface. Specifically, only...